Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends: Jun 30, 2026 Volume: $9.85M Liquidity: $128.9K

Outcomes

Yes
1%
No
99.1%

Market Details

Volume
$9.85M
Volume (24h)
$180.7K
Liquidity
$128.9K
Created
Dec 17, 2025
Ends
Jun 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.